{"id":4159,"date":"2019-07-01T09:55:04","date_gmt":"2019-07-01T06:55:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/super-news.info\/vi\/phuong-phap-phan-tich-mang-lai-hieu-qua-vuot-troi-cho-nha-dau-tu\/"},"modified":"2019-07-01T09:55:05","modified_gmt":"2019-07-01T06:55:05","slug":"phuong-phap-phan-tich-mang-lai-hieu-qua-vuot-troi-cho-nha-dau-tu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/super-news.info\/vi\/phuong-phap-phan-tich-mang-lai-hieu-qua-vuot-troi-cho-nha-dau-tu\/","title":{"rendered":"Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ph\u00e2n t\u00edch mang l\u1ea1i hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i cho nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0"},"content":{"rendered":"

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M\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00e0 so s\u00e1nh m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1eafn, trung v\u00e0 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ecm ra c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m mua v\u00e0o v\u00e0 b\u00e1n ra h\u1ee3p l\u00fd nh\u1eb1m t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng s\u1ef1 phi l\u00fd v\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng th\u00e1i qu\u00e1 c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn.<\/p>\n

T\u00edn hi\u1ec7u mua v\u00e0o xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n khi \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng (ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n) v\u01b0\u1ee3t l\u00ean tr\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng (trung h\u1ea1n\/d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n). \u1ede chi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u b\u00e1n ra xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n khi \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng (ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n) c\u1eaft xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng (trung h\u1ea1n\/d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n).<\/p>\n

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V\u00ed d\u1ee5 minh h\u1ecda tr\u00ean cho ch\u00fang ta c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u mua\/b\u00e1n; khi \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng trung b\u00ecnh ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n \u2013 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng m\u00e0u xanh v\u01b0\u1ee3t l\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng trung b\u00ecnh d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n \u2013 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng m\u00e0u n\u00e2u cho t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u mua v\u00e0o (m\u0169i t\u00ean l\u00ean) v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i cho t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u b\u00e1n ra (m\u0169i t\u00ean xu\u1ed1ng).<\/p>\n

L\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn c\u00e1c c\u1eb7p \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111em l\u1ea1i hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn cao nh\u1ea5t?<\/p>\n

Ch\u1eafc h\u1eb3n nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 s\u1ebd b\u0103n kho\u0103n t\u1ef1 h\u1ecfi gi\u1eefa m\u1ed9t “r\u1eebng” c\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng trung b\u00ecnh t\u1eeb ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n cho t\u1edbi d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, \u0111\u00e2u l\u00e0 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p cho chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh?<\/p>\n

D\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ph\u00e9p th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea so s\u00e1nh hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 gi\u1eefa danh m\u1ee5c v\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng trung b\u00ecnh ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n (ch\u1ea1y t\u1eeb 3 ng\u00e0y \u0111\u1ebfn 10 ng\u00e0y) v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng trung b\u00ecnh d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n (t\u1eeb 10 ng\u00e0y \u0111\u1ebfn 50 ng\u00e0y) trong th\u1eddi gian 2 n\u0103m \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho ri\u00eang v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 VnIndex. H\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a VietinBank Securities \u0111\u00e3 so s\u00e1nh hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a 280 c\u1eb7p ng\u1eafn \u2013 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n v\u1edbi khung th\u1eddi gian l\u00e0 500 phi\u00ean giao d\u1ecbch. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 nh\u01b0 sau:<\/p>\n

C\u1eb7p \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng trung b\u00ecnh c\u00f3 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 MA ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n (3 ng\u00e0y) v\u00e0 MA d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n (10 ng\u00e0y) v\u1edbi 21 giao d\u1ecbch mua (long) v\u00e0 22 giao d\u1ecbch b\u00e1n (short sell) trong t\u1ed5ng s\u1ed1 43 v\u1ecb th\u1ebf. T\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trung b\u00ecnh s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng theo ph\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ee9c n\u00e0y l\u00e0 (55%); v\u01b0\u1ee3t g\u1ea5p 2.4 l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t (23%) c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c n\u1eafm gi\u1eef th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed9ng ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 VnIndex trong c\u00f9ng th\u1eddi gian. <\/p>\n

Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p Backtest n\u00eau tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm c\u1eb7p MA c\u00f3 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 VN30 (s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng cho giao d\u1ecbch long\/short h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai VN30F), c\u00e1c c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu ri\u00eang bi\u1ec7t: HPG, VNM,\u2026 ho\u1eb7c \u0111\u1ec3 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p giao d\u1ecbch b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch d\u00f9ng MA v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 nh\u01b0 RSI, MFI (t\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t cao h\u01a1n 20% so v\u1edbi s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u01a1n l\u1ebb).<\/p>\n

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Qu\u00fd nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 mu\u1ed1n bi\u1ebft c\u1eb7p MA hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i cho c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 VN30F ho\u1eb7c mong mu\u1ed1n quan t\u00e2m t\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u s\u00e2u h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 n\u00e0y vui l\u00f2ng li\u00ean h\u1ec7 t\u1edbi Ph\u00f2ng M\u00f4i gi\u1edbi Ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n ho\u1eb7c Trung t\u00e2m Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u ph\u00e2n t\u00edch C\u00f4ng ty Ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n C\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng qua \u0111\u1ecba ch\u1ec9:<\/p>\n

Email: research@cts.vn<\/p>\n

Website: cts.vn<\/p>\n

Fanpage: VietinBank Securities.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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\u00c1nh D\u01b0\u01a1ng<\/p>\n

Theo Nh\u1ecbp s\u1ed1ng kinh t\u1ebf<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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[ad_1] M\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00e0 so s\u00e1nh m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1eafn, trung v\u00e0 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ecm ra c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m mua v\u00e0o v\u00e0 b\u00e1n ra h\u1ee3p l\u00fd nh\u1eb1m t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng s\u1ef1 phi l\u00fd v\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng th\u00e1i qu\u00e1 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4160,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4159","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ban-tin-tai-chinh"],"yoast_head":"\nPh\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ph\u00e2n t\u00edch mang l\u1ea1i hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i cho nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 - 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