{"id":2830,"date":"2019-06-08T21:54:42","date_gmt":"2019-06-08T18:54:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/super-news.info\/vi\/ong-duong-van-chung-du-bao-vn-index-co-the-tro-lai-dinh-1-200-diem-vao-dau-nam-2020\/"},"modified":"2019-06-08T21:54:43","modified_gmt":"2019-06-08T18:54:43","slug":"ong-duong-van-chung-du-bao-vn-index-co-the-tro-lai-dinh-1-200-diem-vao-dau-nam-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/super-news.info\/vi\/ong-duong-van-chung-du-bao-vn-index-co-the-tro-lai-dinh-1-200-diem-vao-dau-nam-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00d4ng D\u01b0\u01a1ng V\u0103n Chung d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o VN-Index c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ec9nh 1.200 \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Ng\u00e0y 8\/6 \u0111\u00e3 di\u1ec5n ra h\u1ed9i th\u1ea3o MBS\u2019s Talk 16, c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia t\u1eeb CTCK MBS \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra nh\u1eefng nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ec1 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng TTCK trong n\u1eeda cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2019.<\/p>\n

C\u01a1 h\u1ed9i v\u1eabn xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n trong kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n<\/b><\/p>\n

Theo \u00f4ng Tr\u1ea7n Ho\u00e0ng S\u01a1n \u2013 Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng CTCK MBS, trong n\u0103m 2019 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n nhi\u1ec1u thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc, nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn c\u00f3 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i trong kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng, ti\u00eau bi\u1ec3u FED \u0111ang ph\u00e1t \u0111i nh\u1eefng t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e2y s\u1ebd l\u00e0 catalyst quan tr\u1ecdng h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i c\u1ee7a TTCK trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. D\u00f9 v\u1eady, kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ed5 v\u00e0o TTCK s\u1ebd d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o nh\u01b0 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2017 \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea7u 2018.<\/p>\n

Theo d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u1ee7a MBS, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng EPS trong n\u0103m 2019 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p ni\u00eam y\u1ebft c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng gi\u1ea3m t\u1eeb 25% trong n\u0103m 2018 xu\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n 10% trong n\u0103m 2019 do (1) c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn \u1edf nh\u00f3m ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n; (2) t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng gi\u1ea3m t\u1eeb 18% v\u1ec1 14% trong n\u0103m nay s\u1ebd l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m EPS c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a nh\u00f3m ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng v\u1ed1n chi\u1ebfm t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng l\u1edbn trong VN-Index v\u00e0 (3) t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a nh\u00f3m B\u0110S n\u0103m 2019 s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m do th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u1ea7m l\u1eafng v\u00e0 t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng B\u0110S \u0111ang b\u1ecb si\u1ebft l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Vi\u1ec7t Nam k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 3 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n do xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u1edbn tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, ph\u1ea7n n\u1eefa l\u00e0 do xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m c\u1ee7a t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p. K\u1ebft th\u00fac qu\u00fd 1\/2019, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p ni\u00eam y\u1ebft \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m 1,2% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3.<\/p>\n

Ngo\u00e0i ra, c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n n\u00e2ng h\u1ea1ng Emerging Markets c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam trong n\u0103m 2020 c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng v\u00e0 \u0111ang g\u1eb7p kh\u00f4ng \u00edt tr\u1edf ng\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

Do v\u1eady, \u00f4ng S\u01a1n cho r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng trong nh\u00f3m Frontier ho\u1eb7c Emerging th\u00ec m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Vi\u1ec7t Nam s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c 15,62 l\u1ea7n cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2018 xu\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n 14.x trong n\u0103m 2019 (t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng PEG 1,4).<\/p>\n

\u00d4ng S\u01a1n d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o VN-Index n\u0103m 2019 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 dao \u0111\u1ed9ng trung b\u00ecnh quanh m\u1ed1c 900 \u0111i\u1ec3m, c\u1eadn tr\u00ean t\u1ed1i \u0111a 1.010 \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0 c\u1eadn d\u01b0\u1edbi 814 \u0111i\u1ec3m.<\/p>\n

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H\u1ea7u h\u1ebft nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 cho r\u1eb1ng VN-Index s\u1ebd k\u1ebft th\u00fac n\u0103m 2019 \u1edf 900 – 1.000 \u0111i\u1ec3m<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\u00d4ng D\u01b0\u01a1ng V\u0103n Chung d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o VN-Index s\u1ebd t\u0103ng l\u00ean 1.200 \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2020<\/b><\/p>\n

Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, \u00f4ng D\u01b0\u01a1ng V\u0103n Chung \u2013 Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c khu v\u1ef1c mi\u1ec1n b\u1eafc MBS c\u00f3 c\u00e1i nh\u00ecn l\u1ea1c quan h\u01a1n. \u00d4ng Chung cho r\u1eb1ng VN-Index s\u1ebd t\u0103ng s\u00e1t m\u1ed1c 1.200 \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2020 (giai \u0111o\u1ea1n s\u00e1t T\u1ebft \u00e2m l\u1ecbch). Sau t\u1ebft, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c duy tr\u00ec \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00ean 1.350 \u0111i\u1ec3m.<\/p>\n

Theo \u00f4ng Chung, d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o ph\u00e2n t\u00edch s\u00f3ng Elliott, VN-Index hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e3 k\u1ebft th\u00fac s\u00f3ng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh 4 v\u00e0 \u0111ang b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o s\u00f3ng t\u0103ng 5. Theo \u0111\u00fang l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft s\u00f3ng 5, VN-Index c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t t\u1ed1i \u0111a 1.600 \u0111\u1ebfn 1.700 \u0111i\u1ec3m. Tuy nhi\u00ean, s\u1ebd c\u00f3 d\u1ea1ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh “s\u00f3ng 5 c\u1ee5t” v\u00e0 khi \u0111\u00f3 VN-Index s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea1t t\u1ed1i thi\u1ec3u 1.200 \u0111i\u1ec3m, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng v\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec9nh c\u0169. Nh\u1ecbp t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a VN-Index \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2012 v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 8, th\u00e1ng 9\/2020.<\/p>\n

V\u1ec1 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, theo \u00f4ng Chung xu h\u01b0\u1edbng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c l\u1edbn v\u00e0o h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c NHTW c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc. N\u1ebfu xu h\u01b0\u1edbng h\u1ea1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t di\u1ec5n ra, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd c\u00f2n l\u00ean v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, khi n\u00e2ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd \u0111i xu\u1ed1ng. Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9 \u0111ang ph\u00e1t \u0111i nh\u1eefng t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u1eadm, nh\u01b0ng vi\u1ec7c FED c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t s\u1ebd gi\u00fap th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c.<\/p>\n

\u00d4ng Chung cho r\u1eb1ng c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 – Trung g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y s\u1ebd gi\u00fap M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 2 m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch, th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 h\u1ea1 v\u1ecb th\u1ebf Trung Qu\u1ed1c, n\u00e2ng cao v\u1ecb th\u1ebf n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 th\u1ee9 hai l\u00e0 nh\u1eb1m “\u00e9p” FED h\u1ea1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. Tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, nh\u1eefng ng\u00e0y g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y FED \u0111ang ph\u00e1t \u0111i t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. N\u1ebfu FED th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 h\u1ea1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn TTCK s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh tr\u01b0\u1edbc b\u1edfi ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n l\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng. N\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ee3i \u0111\u1ebfn khi FED ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c h\u1ea1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 9 hay th\u00e1ng 12, khi \u0111\u00f3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng m\u1ed9t \u0111o\u1ea1n d\u00e0i.<\/p>\n

C\u0169ng theo \u00f4ng Chung, chu k\u1ef3 kinh t\u1ebf l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh kh\u1ecfi. Tuy nhi\u00ean, nhi\u1ec1u nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh cho r\u1eb1ng chu k\u1ef3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kho\u1ea3ng 10 n\u0103m v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c b\u1edfi khi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u00e0ng m\u1ea1nh th\u00ec chu k\u1ef3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i h\u01a1n, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00ean t\u1edbi 12, 13 n\u0103m. H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i c\u1ee7a T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng D.Trump sau khi l\u00ean n\u1eafm quy\u1ec1n cho th\u1ea5y \u00f4ng \u0111ang n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c k\u00e9o d\u00e0i chu k\u1ef3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9.<\/p>\n

Chung quan \u0111i\u1ec3m, \u00f4ng Ho\u00e0ng C\u00f4ng Tu\u1ea5n \u2013 Tr\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1ed9 ph\u1eadn nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u0129 m\u00f4 MBS cho r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ec9nh c\u1ee7a chu k\u1ef3 kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1. \u0110\u1ea7u ti\u00ean l\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e3 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n bong b\u00f3ng hay ch\u01b0a? N\u0103m 2000, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ed5 v\u1ee1 v\u1edbi bong b\u00f3ng dot-com. N\u0103m 2008 l\u00e0 bong b\u00f3ng b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n. Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, TTCK M\u1ef9 ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u bong b\u00f3ng m\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c “\u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 cao”. Gi\u00e1 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n m\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 quay l\u1ea1i gi\u00e1 n\u0103m 2008, t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 ch\u01b0a t\u0103ng qu\u00e1 so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ec9nh. Ch\u1ec9 khi n\u00e0o c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 – Trung t\u0103ng cao, c\u00e1c NHTW ph\u1ea3i h\u1ea1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u00ec sau \u0111\u00f3 c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c “b\u01a1m ph\u1ed3ng” l\u00ean, khi \u0111\u00f3 m\u1edbi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n bong b\u00f3ng. Trong n\u0103m nay ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u1eefa l\u00e0 l\u00e0m ph\u00e1t. Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t M\u1ef9 v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a cao n\u00ean s\u1ebd ch\u01b0a th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 bong b\u00f3ng v\u00e0 chu k\u1ef3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t. Theo \u00f4ng Tu\u1ea5n, \u0111\u1ec9nh c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2020, 2021.<\/p>\n

V\u1ec1 di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u, \u00f4ng Ho\u00e0ng C\u00f4ng Tu\u1ea5n cho r\u1eb1ng M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn. Tuy nhi\u00ean, tr\u00ean qu\u1ea3n \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u0129 m\u00f4, M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng “th\u00edch” gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u qu\u00e1 cao ho\u1eb7c qu\u00e1 th\u1ea5p. N\u1ebfu qu\u00e1 th\u1ea5p s\u1ebd khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p khai th\u00e1c d\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e1 phi\u1ebfn l\u1ed7, \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn ng\u00e0nh d\u1ea7u kh\u00ed c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, n\u1ebfu qu\u00e1 cao s\u1ebd khi\u1ebfn l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u0103ng cao v\u00e0 FED kh\u00f3 gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. Do \u0111\u00f3, M\u1ef9 s\u1ebd “\u0111i\u1ec1u ph\u1ed1i” gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u \u1edf m\u1ee9c \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh, nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng trong v\u00f9ng 60 \u2013 70 USD (brent).<\/p>\n

V\u1ec1 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, \u00f4ng D\u01b0\u01a1ng V\u0103n Chung \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 nh\u00f3m c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu d\u1ea7u kh\u00ed, n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ebd l\u00e0 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn t\u1ed1t trong n\u0103m 2019. Ngo\u00e0i ra, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Bluechips c\u0169ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn do li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n ngo\u1ea1i s\u1ebd l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn trong c\u00e1c r\u1ed5 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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