{"id":2055,"date":"2019-05-26T11:15:58","date_gmt":"2019-05-26T08:15:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/super-news.info\/vi\/ty-gia-tang-2-3-trong-nam-2019-la-muc-chap-nhan-duoc\/"},"modified":"2019-05-26T11:15:58","modified_gmt":"2019-05-26T08:15:58","slug":"ty-gia-tang-2-3-trong-nam-2019-la-muc-chap-nhan-duoc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/super-news.info\/vi\/ty-gia-tang-2-3-trong-nam-2019-la-muc-chap-nhan-duoc\/","title":{"rendered":"“T\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng 2-3% trong n\u0103m 2019 l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c”"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Theo B\u00e1o c\u00e1o \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a leo thang chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9-Trung \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam do TS C\u1ea5n V\u0103n L\u1ef1c v\u00e0 Nh\u00f3m t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 Vi\u1ec7n \u0110\u00e0o t\u1ea1o v\u00e0 Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u BIDV m\u1edbi c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1, c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia cho r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i, t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9-Trung c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn t\u1edbi nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1edbn tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf. <\/p>\n

Theo \u0111\u00f3, gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed3ng USD c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng l\u00ean (m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n l\u00e0 do kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9 v\u1eabn kh\u00e1 \u1ed5n), trong khi gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed3ng CNY gi\u1ea3m nh\u01b0 n\u00eau tr\u00ean. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh (do quan h\u1ec7 cung-c\u1ea7u c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u1ed5n, thanh kho\u1ea3n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o, d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng…), nh\u01b0ng nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1edbi t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 USD\/VND.<\/p>\n

Tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 6, \u0111\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng 7\/2018 (khi c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i leo thang), t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 USD\/VND \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh (v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua m\u1ee9c 23.000 VND\/USD), sau \u0111\u00f3 d\u1ecbu l\u1ea1i nh\u1edd s\u1ef1 linh ho\u1ea1t, can thi\u1ec7p k\u1ecbp th\u1eddi c\u1ee7a NHNN. Trong g\u1ea7n 4 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2019, t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 giao d\u1ecbch \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng 5\/2019, t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 VND\/USD bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n, khi\u1ebfn cho t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn h\u1ebft ng\u00e0y 24\/5\/2019, t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng 0,95% so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m; ri\u00eang giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u1eeb ng\u00e0y 6\/5 \u0111\u1ebfn 24\/5\/2019, t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng 0,5%.<\/p>\n

Nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 do: (i) \u0111\u1ed3ng USD m\u1ea1nh l\u00ean tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, (ii) lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9-Trung leo thang; qua \u0111\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00e2m l\u00fd v\u00e0 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p, nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n, c\u00f2n quan h\u1ec7 cung-c\u1ea7u ngo\u1ea1i t\u1ec7 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh. \u0110\u00e1ng l\u01b0u \u00fd l\u00e0 t\u1eeb ng\u00e0y 20\/5 \u0111\u1ebfn nay, t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 \u0111\u00e3 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed VND c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 nh\u1eb9 so v\u1edbi USD.<\/p>\n

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Song v\u1ec1 trung v\u00e0 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, theo TS. C\u1ea5n V\u0103n L\u1ef1c v\u00e0 nh\u00f3m t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7n \u0110\u00e0o t\u1ea1o v\u00e0 Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u BIDV cho r\u1eb1ng, t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 USD\/VND s\u1ebd t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu v\u00e0o c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 v\u0129 m\u00f4 nh\u01b0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP, tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i c\u00e1n c\u00e2n thanh to\u00e1n t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3, c\u00e1n c\u00e2n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i, thu h\u00fat FDI, gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng… v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd s\u00e1t sao, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a NHNN. Tuy nhi\u00ean, do c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 trung t\u00e2m c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean m\u1ed9t r\u1ed5 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 (g\u1ed3m 8 lo\u1ea1i ti\u1ec1n ch\u1ee7 ch\u1ed1t nh\u01b0 USD, EUR, JPY, CNY…) trong khi kim ng\u1ea1ch th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i gi\u1eefa Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c chi\u1ebfm kho\u1ea3ng 23% t\u1ed5ng kim ng\u1ea1ch xu\u1ea5t nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u n\u0103m 2018, n\u00ean trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng CNY b\u1ecb m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 th\u00ec VND c\u0169ng ch\u1ecbu \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 kh\u00f4ng nh\u1ecf.<\/p>\n

C\u00f3 \u0111i\u1ec3m thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i l\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng Trung Qu\u1ed1c ph\u00e1 gi\u00e1 CNY l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng cao, v\u1edbi 3 l\u00fd do ch\u00ednh: (i) Trung Qu\u1ed1c lo ng\u1ea1i s\u1ef1 r\u00fat v\u1ed1n m\u1ea1nh (capital flight) nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra trong n\u0103m 2015, (ii) Trung Qu\u1ed1c kh\u00f4ng mu\u1ed1n b\u1ecb cho l\u00e0 thao t\u00fang ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, g\u00e2y c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng th\u00eam trong cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i, v\u00e0 (iii)Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u1eabn ki\u00ean \u0111\u1ecbnh ti\u1ebfn tr\u00ecnh qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf h\u00f3a \u0111\u1ed3ng CNY (m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 \u0111\u1ed3ng CNY gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 m\u1ea1nh trong th\u00e1ng 5, nh\u01b0ng Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 v\u00e0 NHTW Trung Qu\u1ed1c cho r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 do bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng, kh\u00f4ng c\u1ed1 t\u00ecnh ph\u00e1 gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng CNY).<\/p>\n

D\u00f9 v\u1eady, theo c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia c\u1ee7a BIDV, b\u00e0i to\u00e1n t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p h\u01a1n (m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n l\u00e0 do y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 t\u00e2m l\u00fd), \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi c\u1ea7n theo d\u00f5i ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 \u1ee9ng x\u1eed ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p. Tuy nhi\u00ean, v\u1edbi c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf v\u00e0 kinh nghi\u1ec7m \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 linh ho\u1ea1t, ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng, v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ed3ng b\u1ed9 nhi\u1ec1u c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 kh\u00e1c nhau c\u1ee7a NHNN c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng, quan h\u1ec7 cung-c\u1ea7u ngo\u1ea1i t\u1ec7 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh; nh\u00f3m t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 cho r\u1eb1ng t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 USD\/VND trong t\u1ea7m ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t v\u00e0 t\u0103ng 2-3% trong n\u0103m 2019 l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c.<\/p>\n

V\u1ec1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9-Trung tuy kh\u00f4ng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00ean l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1n ti\u1ebfp th\u00f4ng qua bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t. T\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 USD\/VND d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o ch\u1ecbu \u00e1p l\u1ef1c h\u01a1n v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u0103ng l\u00ean trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng nh\u1eb9. Tuy nhi\u00ean, n\u1ebfu chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng h\u01a1n, FED c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u h\u1ea1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, khi \u0111\u00f3 m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t USD gi\u1ea3m, g\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n gi\u1ea3m \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t USD v\u00e0 VND t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam. Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh gi\u1eb1ng co \u0111\u00f3, kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t VND s\u1ebd \u0111i ngang (c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f4i l\u00fac t\u0103ng nh\u1eb9) l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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[ad_1] Theo B\u00e1o c\u00e1o \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a leo thang chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9-Trung \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam do TS C\u1ea5n V\u0103n L\u1ef1c v\u00e0 Nh\u00f3m t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 Vi\u1ec7n \u0110\u00e0o t\u1ea1o v\u00e0 Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u BIDV m\u1edbi c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1, c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia cho r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i, t\u1ef7 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2056,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2055","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ban-tin-tai-chinh"],"yoast_head":"\n"T\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng 2-3% trong n\u0103m 2019 l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c" - Super News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/super-news.info\/vi\/ty-gia-tang-2-3-trong-nam-2019-la-muc-chap-nhan-duoc\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"vi_VN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\""T\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng 2-3% trong n\u0103m 2019 l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c" - 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