{"id":1922,"date":"2019-09-08T18:56:01","date_gmt":"2019-09-08T15:56:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/super-news.info\/pl\/zloto-zaskoczylo-analitykow-bankier-pl\/"},"modified":"2020-02-19T17:41:17","modified_gmt":"2020-02-19T14:41:17","slug":"zloto-zaskoczylo-analitykow-bankier-pl","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/super-news.info\/pl\/zloto-zaskoczylo-analitykow-bankier-pl\/","title":{"rendered":"Z\u0142oto zaskoczy\u0142o analityk\u00f3w – Bankier.pl"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/p>\n

Wakacyjny rajd cen z\u0142ota
\nkompletnie zaskoczy\u0142 rynkowych analityk\u00f3w. I cho\u0107 kr\u00f3lewski metal zapewne
\n<\/span>czeka powa\u017cna korekta, to raczej i tak zako\u0144czy rok du\u017co wy\u017cej, ni\u017c
\noczekiwano.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Na
\npocz\u0105tku 2019 roku nastroje na rynku z\u0142ota trudno by\u0142o uzna\u0107 za optymistyczne.
\nNotowania kruszcu dopiero co zdo\u0142a\u0142y si\u0119 podnie\u015b\u0107 po druzgoc\u0105cych spadkach z
\nlata. Dolarowy kurs z\u0142ota startowa\u0142 z poziomu 1285 USD\/oz., a na rynku pe\u0142no
\nby\u0142o obaw zwi\u0105zanych z polityk\u0105 Rezerwy Federalnej, kt\u00f3ra wed\u0142ug \u00f3wczesnych deklaracji
\nmia\u0142a w kolejnych kwarta\u0142ach dalej podnosi\u0107 stopy procentowe.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

7 stycznia 2109 roku baza prognoz
\nBloomberga zawiera\u0142a 19 aktualnych prognoz dla cen z\u0142ota pochodz\u0105cych z du\u017cych firm
\nfinansowych i analitycznych. Mediana tych projekcji zak\u0142ada\u0142a, \u017ce na
\nkoniec wrze\u015bnia \u201919 kurs z\u0142ota pozostanie bez wi\u0119kszych zmian na poziomie 1280
\nUSD\/oz. Mediana prognoz na koniec 2019 roku wynosi\u0142a 1290 USD\/oz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Firma<\/th>\nI kw. 19<\/th>\nII kw. 19<\/th>\nIII kw. 19<\/th>\nIV kw. 19<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Westpac
\nBanking Corp<\/td>\n		1 234<\/td>\n1 201<\/td>\n1 163<\/td>\n1 137<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BNP Paribas SA<\/td>\n1 145<\/td>\n1 110<\/td>\n1 175<\/td>\n1 140<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Itau Unibanco
\nHolding SA<\/td>\n		1 172<\/td>\n1 165<\/td>\n1 164<\/td>\n1 170<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
DZ Bank AG<\/td>\n1 225<\/td>\n1 225<\/td>\n1 200<\/td>\n1 200<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Deutsche Bank
\nAG<\/td>\n		1 220<\/td>\n1 220<\/td>\n1 200<\/td>\n1 200<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Market Risk
\nAdvisory Co Ltd<\/td>\n		1 225<\/td>\n1 225<\/td>\n1 240<\/td>\n1 240<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Oxford
\nEconomics Ltd<\/td>\n		1 232<\/td>\n1 238<\/td>\n1 240<\/td>\n1 242<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Capital
\nEconomics Ltd<\/td>\n		1 200<\/td>\n1 215<\/td>\n1 240<\/td>\n1 275<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Societe
\nGenerale SA<\/td>\n		1 275<\/td>\n1 260<\/td>\n1 280<\/td>\n1 285<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CIMB<\/td>\n1 260<\/td>\n1 270<\/td>\n1 280<\/td>\n1 290<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Australia
\n& New Zealand Banking Group Ltd<\/td>\n		1 245<\/td>\n1 265<\/td>\n1 280<\/td>\n1 293<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MPS Capital
\nServices Banca per le Imprese SpA<\/td>\n		1 200<\/td>\n1 200<\/td>\n1 250<\/td>\n1 300<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Natixis SA<\/td>\n1 230<\/td>\n1 270<\/td>\n1 290<\/td>\n1 310<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Toronto-Dominion
\nBank\/Toronto<\/td>\n		1 240<\/td>\n1 275<\/td>\n1 300<\/td>\n1 325<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Landesbank
\nBaden-Wuerttemberg<\/td>\n		1 275<\/td>\n1 325<\/td>\n1 350<\/td>\n1 350<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ABN AMRO Bank
\nNV<\/td>\n		1 275<\/td>\n1 313<\/td>\n1 338<\/td>\n1 375<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Emirates NBD
\nPJSC<\/td>\n		1 300<\/td>\n1 350<\/td>\n1 350<\/td>\n1 380<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Incrementum AG<\/td>\n1 310<\/td>\n1 388<\/td>\n1 402<\/td>\n1 454<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Commerzbank AG<\/td>\n1 350<\/td>\n1 400<\/td>\n1 450<\/td>\n1 500<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mediana<\/td>\n<\/td>\n1 290<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Najni\u017csza<\/td>\n1 137<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Najwy\u017csza<\/td>\n1 500<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u0179r\u00f3d\u0142o: Bloomberg.
\nStan z 7.01.2019 r.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Przenie\u015bmy si\u0119 w czasie o 9
\nmiesi\u0119cy do przodu. Z\u0142oto kosztuje ok. 1500 USD za uncj\u0119 i po drodze zdo\u0142a\u0142o
\nustanowi\u0107 nowe rekordy wszech czas\u00f3w w kilku innych ni\u017c dolar walutach (m.in. w
\nEUR, GBP, PLN, INR). Fed zamiast dokona\u0107 zapowiadanych w grudniu PODWY\u017bEK st\u00f3p
\nprocentowych w lipcu zacz\u0105\u0142 je obni\u017ca\u0107 i przyspieszy\u0142 zako\u0144czenie QT (czyli
\nodwrotno\u015bci QE).<\/p>\n

Inwestorzy, kt\u00f3rzy zaufali
\nbankierom centralny, zostali wywiedzeni w pole. Zreszt\u0105 nie pierwszy i zapewne
\nnie ostatni raz. Z\u0142oto od wiek\u00f3w stanowi polis\u0119 ubezpieczeniow\u0105
\nprzed szale\u0144stwami w\u0142adc\u00f3w, w tym tak\u017ce \u201ew\u0142adc\u00f3w pieni\u0105dza\u201d. A jako \u017ce ryzyko
\nnieodpowiedzialnej polityki monetarnej znacz\u0105co wzros\u0142o (zw\u0142aszcza w strefie
\neuro), to i cena polisy posz\u0142a w g\u00f3r\u0119.<\/p>\n

Owszem, w mojej opinii
\nprawdopodobnie troch\u0119 za szybko i by\u0107 mo\u017ce zbyt wysoko. Jaka\u015b korekta przed
\nkolejnym skokiem w g\u00f3r\u0119 by\u0142aby jak najbardziej wskazana i zapewne zobaczymy j\u0105
\nw nadchodz\u0105cych tygodniach. Ale wi\u0119kszo\u015b\u0107 prognoz z pocz\u0105tku roku nadaje si\u0119
\nju\u017c tylko na makulatur\u0119.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Prognozowana
\ncena z\u0142ota (w USD za uncj\u0119) na koniec okresu<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Firma<\/th>\nII kw. 19<\/th>\nIV kw. 19<\/th>\nI kw. 20<\/th>\nII kw. 20<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
BNP Paribas SA<\/td>\n1375<\/td>\n1370<\/td>\n1475<\/td>\n1415<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Landesbank
\nBaden-Wuerttemberg<\/td>\n		1400<\/td>\n1450<\/td>\n1475<\/td>\n1500<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Capital
\nEconomics Ltd<\/td>\n		1405<\/td>\n1400<\/td>\n1395<\/td>\n1380<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Commerzbank AG<\/td>\n1450<\/td>\n1500<\/td>\n1500<\/td>\n1450<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Intesa
\nSanpaolo SpA<\/td>\n		1410<\/td>\n1415<\/td>\n1410<\/td>\n1405<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Bank of China
\nInternational UK Ltd<\/td>\n		1410<\/td>\n1430<\/td>\n1450<\/td>\n1480<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Westpac
\nBanking Corp<\/td>\n		1393<\/td>\n1410<\/td>\n1401<\/td>\n1392<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Market Risk
\nAdvisory Co Ltd<\/td>\n		1375<\/td>\n1350<\/td>\n1350<\/td>\n1325<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CIMB<\/td>\n1390<\/td>\n1460<\/td>\n1420<\/td>\n1440<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Emirates NBD
\nPJSC<\/td>\n		1350<\/td>\n1380<\/td>\n1380<\/td>\n1400<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Societe
\nGenerale SA<\/td>\n		1325<\/td>\n1350<\/td>\n1400<\/td>\n1400<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Panmure Gordon
\n& Co PLC<\/td>\n		1250<\/td>\n1275<\/td>\nbd<\/td>\nbd<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MPS Capital
\nServices Banca per le Imprese SpA<\/td>\n		1280<\/td>\n1300<\/td>\n1320<\/td>\nbd<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ABN AMRO Bank
\nNV<\/td>\n		1338<\/td>\n1375<\/td>\n1413<\/td>\n1438<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mediana<\/td>\n1382,5<\/td>\n1390<\/td>\n1410<\/td>\n1410<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Najni\u017csza<\/td>\n1250<\/td>\n1275<\/td>\n1320<\/td>\n1325<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Najwy\u017csza<\/td>\n1450<\/td>\n1500<\/td>\n1500<\/td>\n1500<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u0179r\u00f3d\u0142o: Bloomberg.
\nStan z 2.09.2019 r.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Najbardziej spud\u0142owali analitycy
\nz australijskiego Westpac Banking oraz francuskiego BNP Paribas, kt\u00f3rzy postawili
\nna spadek cen z\u0142ota poni\u017cej 1200 USD\/oz. Najbli\u017cej celu znale\u017ali si\u0119
\n(przynajmniej na razie) eksperci z niemieckiego Commerzbanku (prognozuj\u0105cy 1450
\nUSD na koniec wrze\u015bnia i 1500 USD na koniec grudnia) oraz tradycyjnie pozytywnie
\nnastawieni do z\u0142ota ekonomi\u015bci z Incrementum (odpowiednio 1402 USD o 1454 USD).
\nRzecz jasna ani trzeci kwarta\u0142 ani tym bardziej rok si\u0119 jeszcze nie sko\u0144czy\u0142,
\nale nawet g\u0142\u0119boka korekta raczej nie odwr\u00f3ci trendu wzrostowego.<\/p>\n

Jak to zwykle bywa, analitycy zacz\u0119li
\npodnosi\u0107 prognozy, goni\u0105c za uciekaj\u0105cym rynkiem. Wi\u0119kszo\u015b\u0107 jeszcze go nie
\ndogoni\u0142a. Wed\u0142ug stanu z 2 wrze\u015bnia mediana prognoz dla cen z\u0142ota wynosi\u0142a
\n1382,50 USD na koniec wrze\u015bnia oraz 1390 USD na koniec roku. To odpowiednio o
\n8% i 7,5% poni\u017cej obecnego kursu.<\/p>\n

Oczywi\u015bcie mo\u017ce si\u0119 zdarzy\u0107, \u017ce
\ndo ko\u0144ca roku cena z\u0142ota spadnie o kilkana\u015bcie procent i rynek przyzna racj\u0119
\nsceptykom. Tyle tylko, \u017ce trudno sobie wyobrazi\u0107, aby nagle wyparowa\u0142y
\nwszystkie bol\u0105czki, kt\u00f3re w ostatnich miesi\u0105cach pcha\u0142y ceny z\u0142ota w g\u00f3r\u0119: zaraza
\nujemnych st\u00f3p procentowych, rosn\u0105ce ryzyko recesji, eskalacja wojen handlowych
\ni walutowych oraz wysokie ryzyko polityczne w najwi\u0119kszych gospodarkach globu.<\/p>\n

Nie chodzi o to, aby
\nwy\u015bmiewa\u0107 prognost\u00f3w albo te\u017c zapakowa\u0107 portfel inwestycyjny w 100% z\u0142otem. Rzecz
\nw tym, \u017ce rynek uczy pokory i \u017ce pr\u00f3by przewidzenia dok\u0142adnego kursu w
\nokre\u015blonym czasie s\u0105 z g\u00f3ry skazane na niepowodzenie<\/strong>. Dlatego w
\nd\u0142u\u017cszym terminie rozwi\u0105zaniem problem\u00f3w z prognozowaniem jest dywersyfikacja.
\nJak dot\u0105d rok 2019 nale\u017cy do z\u0142ota i obligacji, za\u015b akcje spisuj\u0105 si\u0119 s\u0142abo.
\nAle w przysz\u0142ym roku mo\u017ce by\u0107 odwrotnie i ma\u0142o kto to
\nprzewidzi. Dlatego zamiast pr\u00f3bowa\u0107 przewidywa\u0107 nieprzewidziane, lepiej si\u0119
\nna nie zawczasu przygotowa\u0107.<\/p>\n

Krzysztof Kolany<\/p>\n

Source link <\/a>
\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Wakacyjny rajd cen z\u0142ota kompletnie zaskoczy\u0142 rynkowych analityk\u00f3w. I cho\u0107 kr\u00f3lewski metal zapewne czeka powa\u017cna korekta, to raczej i tak zako\u0144czy rok du\u017co wy\u017cej, ni\u017c oczekiwano. Na pocz\u0105tku 2019 roku nastroje na rynku z\u0142ota trudno by\u0142o uzna\u0107 za optymistyczne. Notowania kruszcu dopiero co zdo\u0142a\u0142y si\u0119 podnie\u015b\u0107 po druzgoc\u0105cych spadkach z lata. Dolarowy kurs z\u0142ota startowa\u0142 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1923,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1922","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-wiadomosci-finansowe"],"yoast_head":"\nZ\u0142oto zaskoczy\u0142o analityk\u00f3w - Bankier.pl - Super News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/super-news.info\/pl\/zloto-zaskoczylo-analitykow-bankier-pl\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pl_PL\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Z\u0142oto zaskoczy\u0142o analityk\u00f3w - Bankier.pl - Super News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Wakacyjny rajd cen z\u0142ota kompletnie zaskoczy\u0142 rynkowych analityk\u00f3w. I cho\u0107 kr\u00f3lewski metal zapewne czeka powa\u017cna korekta, to raczej i tak zako\u0144czy rok du\u017co wy\u017cej, ni\u017c oczekiwano. Na pocz\u0105tku 2019 roku nastroje na rynku z\u0142ota trudno by\u0142o uzna\u0107 za optymistyczne. Notowania kruszcu dopiero co zdo\u0142a\u0142y si\u0119 podnie\u015b\u0107 po druzgoc\u0105cych spadkach z lata. 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