{"id":153,"date":"2019-04-12T07:25:01","date_gmt":"2019-04-12T04:25:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/super-news.info\/pl\/polska-znow-pod-lupa-sp\/"},"modified":"2020-02-19T19:18:00","modified_gmt":"2020-02-19T16:18:00","slug":"polska-znow-pod-lupa-sp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/super-news.info\/pl\/polska-znow-pod-lupa-sp\/","title":{"rendered":"Polska zn\u00f3w pod lup\u0105 S&P"},"content":{"rendered":"

[ad_1]<\/p>\n

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Krzysztof Kolany<\/span><\/p>\n

Przed nami kolejny ratingowypi\u0105tek. Tym razem ocen\u0119 wiarygodno\u015bci kredytowej polskiego rz\u0105du zajmie si\u0119agencja S&P Global. Ta sama, kt\u00f3ra ponad trzy lata temu sta\u0142a si\u0119 \u201ewrogiempublicznym\u201d dopuszczaj\u0105c si\u0119 pierwszej w historii obni\u017cki ratingu Polski.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Zgodnie z licz\u0105cymi sobie kilkalat regulacjami unijnymi, agencje ratingowe mog\u0105 publikowa\u0107 wyniki przegl\u0105du notwiarygodno\u015bci kredytowej rz\u0105d\u00f3w tylkow okre\u015blonych wcze\u015bniej terminach. Zwykle s\u0105 to pi\u0105tki wieczorem, ju\u017c pozamkni\u0119ciu notowa\u0144 rynk\u00f3w europejskich, a nierzadko tak\u017ce po zako\u0144czeniu regularnejsesji w Nowym Jorku. Czyli po 22:00 czasu polskiego.<\/p>\n

Mamy ju\u017c za sob\u0105 pierwszytegoroczny przegl\u0105d polskiego ratingu. Dwa tygodnie temu agencja Fitch podtrzyma\u0142anot\u0119 Polski na poziomie A- z perspektyw\u0105 stabiln\u0105.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rating Polski w trzech g\u0142\u00f3wnych agencjach<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
S&P<\/strong><\/td>\nMoody’s<\/strong><\/td>\nFitch<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AAA<\/td>\nAaa<\/td>\nAAA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AA+<\/td>\nAa1<\/td>\nAA+<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AA<\/td>\nAa2<\/td>\nAA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AA-<\/td>\nAa3<\/td>\nAA-<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
A+<\/td>\nA1<\/td>\nA+<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
A<\/td>\nA2 (p. stabilna)<\/strong><\/td>\nA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
A- (p. stabilna)<\/strong><\/td>\nA3<\/td>\nA- (p. stabilna)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BBB+ (p. stabilna)<\/td>\nBaa1<\/td>\nBBB+<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BBB<\/td>\nBaa2<\/td>\nBBB<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BBB-<\/td>\nBaa3<\/td>\nBBB-<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BB+<\/td>\nBa1<\/td>\nBB+<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BB<\/td>\nBa2<\/td>\nBB<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BB-<\/td>\nBa3<\/td>\nBB-<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
B+<\/td>\nB1<\/td>\nB+<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
B<\/td>\nB2<\/td>\nB<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
B-<\/td>\nB3<\/td>\nB-<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CCC+<\/td>\nCaa1<\/td>\nCCC+<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CCC<\/td>\nCaa2<\/td>\nCCC<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CCC-<\/td>\nCaa3<\/td>\nCCC-<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u017ar\u00f3d\u0142o: Bankier.pl<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

– Rating Polski odzwierciedlazdywersyfikowan\u0105 gospodark\u0119 i silne fundamenty makroekonomiczne podtrzymywaneprzez zdrowe ramy polityki gospodarczej i silny sektor bankowy. Te czynnikir\u00f3wnowa\u017c\u0105 niski poziom PKB na mieszka\u0144ca i wysoki d\u0142ug zewn\u0119trzny \u2013 napisali wuzasadnieniu marcowej decyzji analitycy Fitch Ratings.<\/p>\n

By\u0142a to te\u017c pierwsza \u201eoficjalna\u201dokazja, gdy jedna z licz\u0105cych si\u0119 agencji ratingowych mog\u0142a odnie\u015b\u0107 si\u0119 do tzw.pi\u0105tki Kaczy\u0144skiego \u2013 czyli pakietu nowych wydatk\u00f3w fiskalnych finansowanychistotnym wzrostem deficytu bud\u017cetowego.<\/p>\n

– Zaproponowane dzia\u0142aniaobejmuj\u0105 r\u00f3\u017cne transfery socjalne, jak r\u00f3wnie\u017c ci\u0119cie podatku dochodowego dlaniekt\u00f3rych pracownik\u00f3w i s\u0105 oficjalnie szacowane namaksymalnie 60 miliard\u00f3w z\u0142otych (2,5% PKB) w latach 2019-20<\/strong> \u2013napisali eksperci Fitcha. Nie przewiduj\u0105 zatem przekroczenia przez deficytbud\u017cetowy progu 3% PKB, kt\u00f3ry jest granicznym parametrem dla wielu inwestor\u00f3w.<\/p>\n

Jednak\u017ce z punktu widzenia opiniipublicznej i medi\u00f3w g\u0142\u00f3wnego nurtu, ocena S&P wa\u017cy wi\u0119cej, ni\u017c w przypadkuFitcha czy Moody\u2019s. To w\u0142a\u015bnie zaskakuj\u0105ca decyzja S&P ze stycznia2016 roku sprawi\u0142a, \u017ce kwestia rating\u00f3w trafi\u0142a pod polski strzechy.Cho\u0107 w 2018 roku S&P wycofa\u0142a si\u0119 ze swej b\u0142\u0119dnej decyzji przywracaj\u0105crating Polski do wyj\u015bciowego poziomu, to jej oceny ciesz\u0105 si\u0119 szczeg\u00f3ln\u0105uwag\u0105. Tym bardziej po tym, jak premier MateuszMorawiecki zapowiedzia\u0142 zwi\u0119kszenie deficytu do 2-3% PKB.<\/p>\n

Po pi\u0105tkowym przegl\u0105dzieekonomi\u015bci nie spodziewaj\u0105 si\u0119 zmiany ratingu Polski (A-). Ma\u0142o prawdopodobnawydaje si\u0119 tak\u017ce zmiana stabilnej perspektywy naszego ratingu. Niemniej jednakznaczenie dla rynku d\u0142ugu i z\u0142otego zapewne b\u0119d\u0105 mia\u0142y nowe prognozymakroekonomiczne agencji oraz charakter zaakcentowanego przez agencj\u0119 ryzykazwi\u0105zanego z polskimi aktywami.<\/p>\n

Oceny agencji ratingowych maj\u0105du\u017ce znaczenie dla rynku obligacji skarbowych, kt\u00f3ry wycenia koszt obs\u0142ugipolskiego d\u0142ugu publicznego. Cz\u0119\u015b\u0107 inwestor\u00f3w instytucjonalnych wr\u0119cz musikierowa\u0107 si\u0119 notami wystawianymi przez trzy g\u0142\u00f3wne agencje ratingowe (S&P,Fitch i Moody\u2019s), poniewa\u017c s\u0105 zwi\u0105zani regulacjami wewn\u0119trznymi lubzewn\u0119trznymi. Dotyczy to na przyk\u0142ad bank\u00f3w, zak\u0142ad\u00f3w ubezpiecze\u0144 czy funduszyemerytalnych, kt\u00f3rym w wielu przypadkach wolno kupowa\u0107 tylko obligacje oratingu inwestycyjnym. R\u00f3wnocze\u015bnie dla zarz\u0105dzaj\u0105cych aktywami ocena agencjima decyduj\u0105ce znaczenie \u2013 nie ka\u017cdy ma czas analizowa\u0107 sytuacj\u0119polityczno-gospodarcz\u0105 u wszystkich emitent\u00f3w.<\/p>\n

Nast\u0119pny regularny przegl\u0105dratingu Polski odb\u0119dzie si\u0119 ju\u017c za tydzie\u0144, 19 kwietnia. Wtedy to na temat polskiegod\u0142ugu wypowie si\u0119 agencja Moody\u2019s. Kolejny \u201eratingowy pi\u0105tek\u201d czeka nas dopieropod koniec wrze\u015bnia (Fitch).<\/p>\n

Krzysztof Kolany<\/p>\n

Source link <\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[ad_1] Krzysztof Kolany Przed nami kolejny ratingowypi\u0105tek. Tym razem ocen\u0119 wiarygodno\u015bci kredytowej polskiego rz\u0105du zajmie si\u0119agencja S&P Global. Ta sama, kt\u00f3ra ponad trzy lata temu sta\u0142a si\u0119 \u201ewrogiempublicznym\u201d dopuszczaj\u0105c si\u0119 pierwszej w historii obni\u017cki ratingu Polski. Zgodnie z licz\u0105cymi sobie kilkalat regulacjami unijnymi, agencje ratingowe mog\u0105 publikowa\u0107 wyniki przegl\u0105du notwiarygodno\u015bci kredytowej rz\u0105d\u00f3w tylkow okre\u015blonych wcze\u015bniej […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":154,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-153","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-wiadomosci-finansowe"],"yoast_head":"\nPolska zn\u00f3w pod lup\u0105 S&P - Super News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/super-news.info\/pl\/polska-znow-pod-lupa-sp\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pl_PL\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Polska zn\u00f3w pod lup\u0105 S&P - Super News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"[ad_1] Krzysztof Kolany Przed nami kolejny ratingowypi\u0105tek. 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